|Fully Diluted Share Count||326.2m|
|12M High VND||28,400|
|12M Low VND||17,200|
|EVN Genco 2||52.3%|
Price: VND 18,200 Target Price: VND21,700 Upside + Div: 27.5%
Market Cap: USD 257m Daily Val 30 Day: USD 0.1m Foreign room: 15%
|Revenue, VND Billion||6,589||7,482||7,998||8,172|
|NPAT less Minority Interest (VNDb)||1,630||1,045||636||1,329|
|EPS growth (*)||66.5%||-29.9%||42.0%||40.3%|
|PER at market price||6.1||8.6||9.5||5.0|
|PBR at market price||1.1||1.0||1.0||0.9|
|Dividend Yield at market price||8.2%||13.7%||8.2%||11.0%|
|Net Debt / Equity %||0.8||0.6||0.5||0.4|
Notes: (*) EPS growth less one-off profit while PER is calculated on company reported EPS adjusted for bonus & welfare.
– We increase TP for PPC by 4% and upgrade it from M-PF to BUY as a multitude of factors are working in favour of PPC from drought conditions to a vibrant economy that together are having a dual positive affect on utilisation rates, forces strong enough to override the temporary oversupplied situation in the North. Recent share price decline further improve upside.- Fully depreciated asset will lift EPS growth by 40.3% for 2016 while signals from the company suggest positive Pha Lai 1’s PPA re-negotiation next year (but applicable from 2017).
– We retain our forecast on 2015 dividend payment of VND1,500 (8.2% yield) vs. company’s guidance of VND2,000 due to FX loss. However, we expect in 2016 PPC will be able to pay out VND2,000 (11.0% yield) if JPY/VND does not appreciate more than 5% and USD/VND does not appreciate more than 5%. Of note, JPY is anticipated to depreciate by in 2016.
– PPC is trading at forward PER of 5.0x, 50% discount compared to its peers.
Expected drought and higher economic growth benefits both PPC and HPPP. PPC’s output in third quarter increased significantly by 28% and pushed 9M15’s output up by 4% despite 1H15’s decline of 4%, 3Q15 rising due to drought. We revise up utilization rate assumption for PPC and HPPP from 62%-65% to 70%-73% for both years (2015 & 2016). As such, PPC’s core NPAT was revised up by 42%.
PPA for Pha Lai 1 to be the same. According to one member of PPC’s Board of Directors, PPA of Pha Lai 1 which will be re-negotiated after 2015 is expected to remain the same. This relieves the risk that earnings of Pha Lai 2 will be used to make up for worse performance of Pha Lai 1. In addition, BOD member also explained that pressure to dispose PPC’s stake in HPPP is not significant.
PPC cannot pay VND2,000 for 2015 but will be able to 2016. We forecast that PPC’s reported NPAT will be VND636b for 2015 if JPY/VND does not move markedly for the rest of the year. This will allow PPC to pay out VND1,500 per share only, lower than its current guidance of VND2,000 per share. However, such dividend policy is extremely feasible for 2016.
Company At A Glance
Business Electricity generator
Key Sales Drivers Utilization rate & electricity price
Key Cost Drivers Coal price & maintenance cost
Key Risks Oversupplied situation in the Northern market & JPY appreciation
Major Clients Viet Nam Electricity Group (EVN)
Leadership Mr. Lam Pham (Chairman) & Mr. Thu Pham (CEO)
Headquarters Pha Lai ward, Chi Linh town, Hai Duong province
Telephone (+84) 320 3881 126
SELECT COMPANY METRICS
|Revenue Mix %||Gross Profit Contribution|
|Cost Structure %||Capital Structure %|
Source: PPC’s financial statements & VCSC
|INCOME STATEMENT||2014A||2015F||2016F||BALANCE SHEET||2014A||2015F||2016F|
|VND Billion||VND Billion|
|Revenue||7,482||7,998||8,172||Cash & cash equivalents||1,187||1,473||1,612|
|Cost of goods sold||-6,985||-7,139||-6,891||Short term investment||3,446||3,753||3,753|
|Gross Profit||497||859||1,281||Accounts receivables||2,138||1,895||1,936|
|Sales & Marketing exp||0||0||0||Inventories||705||840||811|
|General & Admin exp||-107||-120||-122||Other current assets||4||4||4|
|Operating Profit (EBIT)||391||739||1,159||Total Current assets||7,480||7,965||8,116|
|Financial income||1,055||314||342||Fix assets, gross||13,673||13,943||14,213|
|Financial expenses||-143||-400||-114||– Depreciation||-12,587||-13,035||-13,115|
|In which, interest expense||-138||-115||-108||Fix assets, net||1,086||908||1,098|
|Sh’d profit / loss fr associates||-10||10||69||LT investment||1,431||1,431||1,431|
|Net other income / (loss)||8||8||0||LT assets other||1,327||1,327||1,327|
|Profit before Tax||1,302||671||1,457||Total LT assets||3,844||3,666||3,856|
|Income Tax||-247||-30||-118||Total Assets||11,324||11,631||11,972|
|NPAT before MI||1,054||641||1,339||Accounts payable||326||308||297|
|Minority Interest||-9||-5||-10||Short-term debt||327||349||349|
|NPAT less MI, reported||1,045||636||1,329||Other ST liabilities||873||1,081||1,105|
|NPAT less MI, adjusted,||688||977||1,370||Total current liabilities||1,526||1,739||1,751|
|EBITDA||1,086||1,187||1,239||Long term debt||4,083||4,018||3,669|
|Other LT liabilities||0||0||0|
|Total LT debt||4,083||4,018||3,669|
|EPS basic reported, VND||3,202||1,949||4,074||Total Liabilities||5,608||5,757||5,420|
|EPS basic adjusted (1), VND||2,108||2,994||4,200||Preferred Equity||0||0||0|
|EPS fully diluted (2), VND||2,108||2,994||4,200||Paid in capital/Issued capital||3,262||3,262||3,262|
|Add. share capital/sh. premium||0||0||0|
|RATIOS||2014A||2015F||2016F||Retained earnings & other equity||2,412||2,570||3,248|
|Rev growth||13.6%||6.9%||2.2%||Minority interest||42||42||42|
|Op. profit (EBIT) growth %||-57.9%||89.3%||56.7%||Total equity||5,716||5,874||6,552|
|PBT growth||-42.2%||-48.4%||117.1%||Liabilities & equity||11,324||11,631||11,972|
|EPS growth, adjusted||-29.9%||42.0%||40.3%|
|Gross profit margin||6.6%||10.7%||15.7%||CASH FLOW||2014A||2015F||2016F|
|Op. profit (EBIT) margin||5.2%||9.2%||14.2%||VND Billion|
|EBITDA margin||14.5%||14.8%||15.2%||Beginning Cash Balance||1,186||1,187||1,473|
|NPAT less MI margin||14.0%||8.1%||16.3%||Net Income||1,045||648||1,330|
|ROE||12.3%||16.9%||22.1%||Dep. & amortization||701||448||80|
|ROA||5.9%||8.5%||11.6%||Change in Working Capital||-227||298||1|
|Efficiency||Cash from Operations||782||1,394||1,411|
|Days Inventory On Hand||42.9||39.5||43.7||Capital Expenditures, net||-200||-270||-270|
|Days AR||86.5||92.0||85.6||Investments, net||280||-307||0|
|Days AP||15.8||16.2||16.0||Cash from Investing||80||-577||-270|
|Cash Conversion Days||113.7||115.3||113.2||Dividends Paid||-481||-489||-652|
|∆ in Share Capital||0||0||0|
|Liquidity||∆ in LT debt||-380||-41||-349|
|Current Ratio||4.9||4.6||4.6||∆ in ST debt||–||–||–|
|Quick Ratio||4.4||4.1||4.2||Other financing cash flows|
|Cash Ratio||0.8||0.8||0.9||Cash from Financing||-860||-531||-1,002|
|Debt / Assets||0.4||0.4||0.3||Net Change in Cash||1||286||139|
|Debt / Capital||0.4||0.4||0.4||Ending Cash Balance||1,187||1,473||1,612|
|Net Debt / Equity||0.6||0.5||0.4|
Source: Company financial statements, VCSC forecasts. (1) EPS basic adjusted is earnings per share less extraordinary profits and less contributions to employee bonus and welfare fund per Circular 200.
|2015F||1QA||2QA||3QA||4QF||YTD Actual||Company Guidance||VCSC Forecast|
|Revenues, VND Billion||2,002||2,262||1,782||1,952||6,046||7,419||7,998|
|NPAT guidance, unadjusted||51||317||73||195||441||613||636|
|NPAT guidance, adjusted||149||327||270||230||746||n.a.||977|
|Gross profit margin||6.7%||8.3%||14.4%||14.4%||9.6%|
|Op Profit (EBIT) margin||5.4%||7.3%||13.1%||11.9%||8.4%|
|NPAT less MI (adj.) margin||2.6%||14.0%||4.1%||10.0%||7.3%|
|Revenue, YoY growth||-7.3%||7.2%||30.4%||6.1%|
|Op Profit (EBIT) YoY growth||-61.9%||n.a.||n.a.||-12.3%|
|Revenues, VND Billion||2,160||2,111||1,366||1,840||7,482|
|NPAT guidance, unadjusted||1,045|
|NPAT guidance, adjusted||516|
|Gross profit margin||14.4%||0.6%||-8.9%||16.1%||6.6%|
|Op Profit (EBIT) margin||13.2%||-0.6%||-10.8%||14.3%||5.2%|
|NPAT less MI (adj.) margin||10.3%||-2.3%||24.8%||29.8%||14.0%|
|Revenue, YoY growth||21.5%||13.1%||13.8%||5.5%||13.6%|
|Op Profit (EBIT) YoY growth||-19.6%||n.a.||n.a.||251.8%||-57.9%|
Note: NPAT adjusted = NPAT less minority interest less extraordinary earnings less bonus & welfare fund
|FY 14A||FY15 Old Forecast||FY15 New Forecast||FY15F vs. FY14A||Explanation new vs. old forecast|
|Revenues||7,482||7,230||7,998||6.9%||Utilization rate revised from 65% to 73%|
|Sales & marketing exp||0||0||0||n.a.|
|General admin exp||-107||-108||-120||12.2%|
|Operating profit (EBIT)||391||526||739||89.3%|
|Non-operating profit||696||-151||-278||n.a.||More FX loss due to JPY/VND appreciation|
|Income from associates||-10||93||10||n.a.||Lower reported income from HPPP as HPPP’s earnings was hurt by 5% appreciation of USD/VND.|
|Profit before tax||1,302||674||671||-48.4%|
|Profit after tax||1,054||632||641||-39.2%|
|NPAT less MI, unadj||1,045||628||636||-39.1%|
|NPAT less MI, adj||688||687||977||42.0%|
|Basis points movements|
|Gross profit margin %||6.6%||8.8%||10.7%||4.1%|
|Sales & marketing % sales||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
|General admin % sales||1.4%||1.5%||1.5%||0.1%|
|EBIT margin %||5.2%||7.3%||9.2%||4.0%|
|EBITDA margin %||14.5%||13.5%||14.8%||0.3%|
|NPAT margin %||14.0%||8.7%||8.0%||-6.0%|
|Effective tax rate %||19.0%||6.2%||4.5%||-14.5%|
Drought benefits PPC as well as HPPP
We revise up utilization rate assumptions for PPC from 65% to 73% in 2015 and from 62% to 73% in 2016. Likewise, HPPP’s utilization rates are adjusted accordingly.
Through 10 months of 2015, coal thermal power plants nationwide increased its contribution to Vietnam electricity system from 32% to 36%. This explains PPC and HPPP’s strong output year to date.
The fact that reservoirs across three regions have just been able to store from 20% to 50% of their design capacity at present indicates that 2016 will be another dry year for hydro power plants. Consequently, thermal power plants will continue to benefit.
Figure 1: PPC & HPPP’s utilization rate assumption changes
Source: PPC, HPPP & VCSC
PPC’s 9M result: FX loss obscures robust core earnings
PPC’s 3Q result came out with revenue growing by 31% and EBIT reached VND234b vs. a loss of VND146b in the same period last year. Core earnings jumped to VND270b, circa six-fold compared to 3Q14A. Output in this 3Q increased significantly by 28% and pushed 9M15’s output up by 4% despite 1H15’s decline of 4%. Severe drought as well as strong GDP growth benefited PPC remarkably despite a temporarily oversupplied situation in the North which we mentioned in our initiation report. However, PPC suffered FX loss of VND 214b vs. FX gain of VND 420b last year, resulting in 3Q15A NPAT declining 78% compared to 3Q14A.
For 9M15A result, revenue was up 7%. Meanwhile, EBIT soared by 304% on higher sales volume as well as lower depreciation expense of VND91b. In addition, 9M15A core NPAT has grown by 71% vs. 9M14A despite reported NPAT’s decline by 11% due to 7% appreciation of JPY vs. VND.
Figure 2: PPC’s 3Q and 9M results (VNDb)
|Item||3Q14A||3Q15A||Change (%)||9M14A||9M15A||Change (%)|
|Electricity output (m kWh)||1,086||1,391||28%||4,367||4,538||4%|
|Income from JV||0||0||n.a.||35||95||171%|
Source: PPC & VCSC
Similarly, PPC’s 26% stake in associated company – Hai Phong thermal power plant (HPPP)’s earnings was also hurt by VND’s depreciation by 5% as of 30 Sep 2015. 3Q15A suffered huge loss of VND395b due to translation loss on its USD463m-denominated loan. As a consequence, for 9M15A, HPPP delivered core earnings of VND474b but reported NPAT still showed a loss of VND139b.
Through nine months, HPPP also benefit from drought and revenue has grown by 21% on the back of stronger output, however, bottom line saw more subdued growth of 2% due to ongoing expense for first years of operation.
Figure 3: HPPP’s 3Q15A and 9M15A results
|Item||3Q14A||3Q15A||Change (%)||9M14A||9M15A||Change (%)|
Source: HPPP & VCSC
We expect that HPPP’s core earnings will improve gradually owing to better cost control as well as lower interest expense going forward on lower loan balance. HPPP is estimated to contribute ~VND200b core earnings for PPC every year.
In terms of reported NPAT, we estimate that HPPP will only contribute materially for PPC from 2017 onwards. For 2015, HPPP was hurt by VND depreciation of 5% while for 2016 we assume that HPPP will book the final FX loss during construction period of VND392b.
Figure 4: HPPP’s earnings outlook
Source: HPPP & VCSC
PPC is expected to pay cash dividend of VND2,000 per share for 2016
We run two scenarios on foreign exchange rates, USD/VND and JPY/VND to see how these rates affect PPC’s capability of dividend payment:
- Scenario 1: JPY/VND remains flat and USD/VND appreciates by 2%
- Scenario 2: JPY/VND appreciates by 5% and USD/VND appreciates by 5%
We see that PPC will still be able to follow its dividend policy of VND2,000 per share if JPY does not appreciate more than 5% and USD does not appreciate more than 5%.
Figure 5: PPC’s dividend budget vs. reported NPAT
Source: PPC, HPPP & VCSC
Meanwhile, we note that currency experts are forecasting an uptrend for USD/JPY in 2016 given Japan is struggling with soft domestic capital expenditure and challenging global business conditions.
Figure 6: JPY/USD exchange rate trend
Source: The Economy forecast Agency
History of recommendations
Source: Bloomberg & VCSC
VCSC Rating and Valuation Methodology
Absolute, long term (fundamental) rating: The recommendation is based on implied total return for the stock defined as (target price – current price)/current price + dividend yield, and is not related to market performance. This structure applies from 27 May 2015.
|BUY||Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to exceed 20%|
|OUTPERFORM (O-PF)||Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be positive 10%-20%|
|MARKET PERFORM (M-PF)||Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be between negative 10% and positive 10%|
|UNDERPERFORM (U-PF)||Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be negative 10%-20%|
|SELL||Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be below negative 20%|
|NOT RATED||The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulation and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when VCSC is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.|
|RATING SUSPENDED||A rating that happens when fundamental information is insufficient to determine an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock.|
Unless otherwise specified, these performance parameters only reflect capital appreciation and are set with a 12-month horizon. Future price volatility may cause temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on market price and the formal recommendation, thus these performance parameters should be interpreted flexibly.
Small Cap Research: VCSC Research covers companies with a market capitalisation of up to US$50mn, inclusively. Clients should note that coverage may not be consistent and that VCSC may drop coverage of small caps at any time without notice.
Target price: In most cases, the target price will equal the analyst’s assessment of the current fair value of the stock. The target price is the level the stock should currently trade at if the market were to accept the analyst’s view of the stock, provided the necessary catalysts were in place to effect this change in perception within the performance horizon. However, if the analyst doesn’t think the market will reassess the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the target price may differ from fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the mismatch between current market price and our assessment of current fair value.
Valuation Methodology: To derive the target price, the analyst may use different valuation methods, including, but not limited to, discounted free cash-flow and comparative analysis. The selection of methods depends on the industry, the company, the nature of the stock and other circumstances. Company valuations are based on a single or a combination of one of the following valuation methods: 1) Multiple-based models (P/E, P/cash flow, EV/sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), peer-group comparisons, and historical valuation approaches; 2) Discount models (DCF, DVMA, DDM); 3) Break-up value approaches or asset-based evaluation methods; and 4) Economic profit approaches (Residual Income, EVA). Valuation models are dependent on macroeconomic factors, such as GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, raw materials, on other assumptions about the economy, as well as risks inherent to the company under review. Furthermore, market sentiment may affect the valuation of companies. Valuations are also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries.
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Analyst Certification of Independence
I , Duong Dinh, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.
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Coal price , Electricity Generation , global business , Small Cap Research , Thermal Power , Valuation , VCSC Rating , Vietnam , Vietnam Electricity
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