Vietnam Fearless Forecast 2016

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Vietnam Special Report: Hai Phong

Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook – ‘BE FEARLESS, NOT FOOLISH’

January 7, 2015

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‘GAME-CHANGING’ NEWS

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DASHBOARD – PRODUCED MONTHLY

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DASHBOARD

Regional Countries
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BCI NUMBERS

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TPP AND ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY

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THE CURRENT MARKETS

Gold, oil, stock, currency fluctuations
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CURRENCY, INTEREST RATES, INFLATION

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HCMC INFRASTRUCTURE

Major Interchanges
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HCMC INFRASTRUCTURE

New Key Projects
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HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE

Key Intersections on Ring Road 2 to come into operation before Tet
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HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE

Metro lines
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HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE

New Key Projects
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HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE

Hanoi – Hai Phong Highway inaugurated
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THU THIEM NEW URBAN AREA

Quick Progress, Fast Changes
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NEW FACE OF SAIGON IN 2016 – 2018

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FAST CHANGING HANOI WE

Thang Long Boulevard area development
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NEW FACE OF HANOI 2016 – 2020

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CONDOMINIUM

2015 Marks A New High
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CONDOMINIUM

Hot Spots
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THE NEXT LEVEL OF PREMIUM HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL

HCMC
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THE NEXT LEVEL OF PREMIUM HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL

Hanoi
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CONDOMINIUM

Professional property sales agent?
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HCMC CONDOMINIUM

Increase launch price in premium high-end projects
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HANOI CONDOMINIUM

Increase launch price in premium high-end projects
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CONDOMINIUM

The CBD Make-over
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CONDOMINIUM

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CONDOMINIUM

CBRE Sales – More Options, Sizes, Higher Price, Larger Client Pool
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HCMC CONDOMINIUM

The Strengthening of Local Developers
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HANOI CONDOMINIUM

The Strengthening of Local Developers
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HCMC CONDOMINIUM

M&A Activities
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HANOI CONDOMINIUM

M&A Activities
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RESIDENTIAL AFFORDABILITY PYRAMID

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CONDOMINIUM

Market Outlook for Luxury and High-end Properties
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OFFICE SUPPLY

Big buildings wave
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OFFICE

Major Transactions by Sector
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OFFICE

Deal Breakdown By Size
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OFFICE

Origin Of Tenants
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OFFICE

Fast Increasing Demand For Flexible Workplace
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OFFICE

Market Outlook
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RETAIL

New Openings in 2015
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RETAIL

Market Outlook for Shopping Centre
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RETAIL

M&A and Retail Expansion
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RETAIL

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SHOPPING CHANNELS

Street front shops are most favoured
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MAIN PURPOSE OF GOING TO SHOPPING CENTRES

Shopping and F&B as major activities
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TRIGGERS OF FAVORITE SHOPPING CENTRES

Location and accessibility are on top
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HOSPITALITY

Supply doubled over 10 years, still lagging behind key regional cities
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HOSPITALITY

Big brands enter and expand
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HOSPITALITY

Future Supply
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HOSPITALITY

Guaranteed Yield guarantees sales
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HOSPITALITY

Sales picked up
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HOSPITALITY

Visa waiver to boost tourism
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INVESTMENT

Land price in big cities
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INVESTMENT

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INVESTOR PROFILE

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SUPPORTING AND HINDERING FACTORS

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MAJOR INVESTMENT DEALS IN 2015

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CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

Macro

  • The 5Cs – Currency, China, Commodities, Climate, Competition;
  • Apple opens a flagship store in HCMC;
  • Nguyen becomes the most popular name at MIT graduation in 2016;
  • President Obama signs the TPP into legislation on his last day in office;
  • Oil prices drop to US$20 per barrel, however Vietnam only makes money above US$47 per barrel;
  • Vietnam gets full Emerging Market status;
  • Impact of Technology – more noise, less analysis (so far);
  • Technology in marketing – more spam, more often;
  • Information technology in Building Management – More analysis, better decisions, more control;
  • Sharing of data – Better valuations, more transparency, stronger governance;
  • No Brixit.

CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

Residential

  • Condos being quoted at US$7,000 psm will come in District 1 and Hoan Kiem after Tet;
  • Traffic congestion, flooding, noise and pollution begin to effect buying patterns;
  • Hanoi and HCMC see the reappearance of Townships;
  • Affordable and premium sector remain the dominant residential sector with VND1 Bn as the sweet spot;
  • The Ghost Month in August 2016 becomes CBRE’s best month for residential sales;
  • CBRE bans the word “Bubble”.

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CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

Residential

  • Second homes, what about third homes?
  • 40 spam sms’s a day becomes normal;
  • Vietnam discusses Direct Mail and Anti-spam legislation in the NA;
  • Selling in Hong Kong and Singapore becomes the new norm;
  • Foreign Investors prefer to buy “on line”;
  • VinGroup surpasses Unilever as the biggest advertiser in Vietnam.

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CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

Office

  • Saigon M&C is renamed, gets finished in 2016 and opens fully committed;
  • Deutsches Haus gets delivered a day early because of a Leap Year in 2016;
  • Decentralised office locations steal all the oxygen;
  • Another easy year for BMs and PMs as big Tenants have few choices.

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CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

Retail

  • Too fast expansion leads to cannibalization;
  • More M&A activity in F&B, Fashion and Supermarkets;
  • After Vingroup’s success, more retailers and retail developers venture into second- and third-tier cities;
  • More Department Stores inside large shopping Centres adding more entertainment and retail concepts;
  • Global fast Fashion retailers arrive in Vietnam;
  • Retailers become Retail developers while Developers become Retailers;
  • Shopping Centre Owners discover the urgency to remerchandise and redevelop flagging mall space in order to attract the best retailers.

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CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

HOSPITALITY

  • Hotel – you build it and who runs it?
  • Accor gets some real competition;
  • Branded residences spill over into Condo Development.

INVESTMENT

  • Land prices hit US$30,000 per sm in prime spots in HCMC;
  • REITs finally get going;
  • Auctions happen;
  • Keangnam sells;
  • Anyone thinking of doing a Vietnam Real Estate Fund?

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CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

Sports

  • Vietnam nguyen’s a couple of medals at the Rio Olympic Games – in Men’s Pistol Shooting and Women’s Weight Lifting;
  • England gets knocked out of the Euro 2016 by Wales (again);
  • The EPL returns to normal after Tet with MCFC, Arsenal, MUFC and Spurs all regaining form;
  • However, LCFC plays in the Europa League in 2016/17;
  • FIFA gets its act together, finally.

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CBRE FEARLESS FORECAST 2016

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AT CBRE, WE LIVE AND BREATHE THE BUSINESS OF REAL ESTATE

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THANK YOU!

© 2016 CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
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